P. Neirinck's obs of Unknown / possible connection to 99057C

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@home.com)
Date: Sat Apr 08 2000 - 09:08:58 PDT

  • Next message: Ted Molczan: "Russell's Unknown is NOT 99057C"

    Last night, Pierre Neirinck observed an unknown near the expected track of the
    recent unknowns reported by Russell Eberst and Mike Waterman. Here are his
    points in IOD format:
    
    99999 00 000A   2563 G 20000407220818790 17 34 0726740+487500 46 S+070 10
    99999 00 000A   2563 G 20000407220839000 17 34 0640157+533500 16 S+070 10
    99999 00 000A   2563 G 20000407220951280 38 34 0412000+572000 47 S+070 10
    
    Pierre's final point is only roughly estimated, but he believes it is
    sufficiently accurate to confirm that the orbit is eccentric.
    
    The situation with these unknowns remains confusing. I'm not certain how many
    of the reported observations are of the same object. I suspect that most of the
    recent sightings (4 - 7 Apr) have been of the same object, but we have yet to
    hit on an orbit that fits them all. Mike Waterman's two unknowns of 25 March,
    near this same orbital plane, prove that there are at least two objects, which
    tends to complicate matters.
    
    I continue to suspect some connection to 99057C, lost by NORAD after day 87.
    Perhaps nothing at all has happened to change its orbit, and NORAD simply lost
    it due to some observational/analytical glitch. To test for this possibility, I
    suggest searching for it in its last known reliable orbit:
    
    1 25942U 99057  C 00071.63855104  .00001400  00000-0  39810-3 0   745
    2 25942  98.5348 148.0201 0012205 309.5032  50.4759 14.46871864 21629
    
    If it is still in that orbit, then the prediction uncertainty today should be
    no worse than several minutes, despite the age of the elements.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
    
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