USA 86, USA 129, Lacrosse 3 and OCS elements - USA 129 manoeuvre alert

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@home.com)
Date: Fri Apr 07 2000 - 08:34:37 PDT

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    Pierre Neirinck produced these elements, using observations by himself, David
    Brierley, Russell Eberst, Jim Nix, Alberto Rango and Peter Wakelin, from 21
    March - 06 April UTC:
    
    USA 86          15.0  3.0  0.0  5.1 v
    1 22251U 92083  A 00098.11349400  .00007971  00000-0  51277-3 0  5864
    2 22251  97.7396 133.5792 0366026 190.0258 168.9896 14.66689344    01
    
    USA 129         15.0  3.0  0.0  5.1 v
    1 24680U 96072  A 00098.09301030  .00046322  00000-0  65182-3 0  4231
    2 24680  97.8859 162.0939 0474152 209.5186 147.4802 14.83255859    08
    
    The USA 129 manoeuvre alert continues. Based on its past behaviour, an
    orbit-raising manoeuvre can be expected before its mean motion reaches 14.84
    rev/d, sometime during the next 8 days, at the present rate of decay.
    
    My records show only one case of previous operational satellites in this series
    for which the mean motion was permitted to go higher than 14.84 rev/d. In 1995,
    on day 233, both 88099A and 92083A reached mean motions in excess of 14.846
    rev/d, and then manoeuvred a day or two later. If USA 129's mean motion is
    permitted to go as high this time, then the manoeuvre could be as many as 15
    days away.
    
    Lacrosse 3      18.0  4.5  0.0  3.6 v
    1 25017U 97064  A 00097.14391440  .00003394  00000-0  59666-3 0  2495
    2 25017  56.9816 337.1707 0013056 117.4487 242.6841 14.67266252    05
    
    OCS              3.6  0.0  0.0  3.9 v
    1 26062U 00004  B 00098.08236730  .00081751  00000-0  25705-1 0   618
    2 26062 100.2220 307.8607 0030027 342.7004  17.0031 14.40265893    02
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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