Decay watch: 2000 Apr 7

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Apr 06 2000 - 23:46:05 PDT

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    From my Decay Watch page..
    
    #20966 = 90-104 A = Cosmos 2106
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Apr  1 06:15     Apr  7 17:12 +-4d        27.1 S     2.0 W
    SpaceCom   Apr  3 23:47     Apr  7 22:26 +-2d        15.4 N   100.9 E
    SpaceCom   Apr  4 18:05     Apr  7 15:30 +-2d        81.0 S    95.1 W
    SpaceCom   Apr  5 10:34     Apr  7 19:37 +-1d        13.8 S   147.5 E
    SpaceCom   Apr  5 15:36     Apr  7 14:17 +-1d        30.5 S    41.5 E
    SpaceCom   Apr  7 00:11     Apr  7 09:27 +-6h        32.5 S    55.9 W
    
    SatEvo     Apr  1 17:50     Apr  7 07:01 +-1.5d
    SatEvo     Apr  2 17:20     Apr  7 13:40 +-1.3d
    SatEvo     Apr  3 18:25     Apr  7 13:40 +-1.0d
    SatEvo     Apr  4 16:25     Apr  7 15:52 +-18h
    SatEvo     Apr  5 18:40     Apr  7 10:23 +-10h       75.8 N   135.5 E
    SatEvo     Apr  6 16:20     Apr  7 15:10 +-6h        18.4 S   145.7 W
    SatEvo     Apr  7 06:30     Apr  7 09:10 +-3h        18.9 N    60.2 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2106      4.0  2.0  0.0  6.2 d   10       166 x 160 km
    1 20966U 90104A   00098.05108359  .15241229 -11564-5  10863-2 0  5372
    2 20966  82.4504  96.2046 0004604 251.6119 108.4533 16.41111705524837
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Cosmos 2106      4.0  2.0  0.0  6.2 d   10       150 x 146 km
    1 20966U 90104A   00098.23372719  .22493578  42211+0  48942-3 0 95374
    2 20966  82.4484  95.9850 0003511 250.8486 109.1134 16.46763176524865
    Cosmos 2106      4.0  2.0  0.0  6.2 d   10       141 x 137 km
    1 20966U 90104A   00098.29443924  .34848162  11535+1  42218-3 0 95379
    2 20966  82.4473  95.9115 0002892 250.5932 109.3756 16.50118625524872
    Cosmos 2106      4.0  2.0  0.0  6.2 d   10       123 x 121 km
    1 20966U 90104A   00098.35498574  .85438888  73836+1  40635-3 0 95376
    2 20966  82.4454  95.8378 0001785 250.3368 109.6439 16.56539469524883
    
    Note: The severe geomagnetic storm that began at the time I made my
    last prediction remains is still raging and, not surprisingly,
    drag rates have increased from their already high values.
    The latest elset has this running 18 seconds early against
    yesterday's predictions. The new prediction is uncertain but puts
    the decay just NE of Antigua & Barbuda in the NE Caribbean on the 
    southbound approach to an equator crossing N of Manaus, Brazil.
    That orbit takes it near Halifax, Nova Scotia, at 09:04 UTC. Earlier,
    it makes a northbound crossing of central Australia, passing over
    Ayers Rock at 08:25.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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