From my Decay Watch page..
#20966 = 90-104 A = Cosmos 2106
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Apr 1 06:15 Apr 7 17:12 +-4d 27.1 S 2.0 W
SpaceCom Apr 3 23:47 Apr 7 22:26 +-2d 15.4 N 100.9 E
SpaceCom Apr 4 18:05 Apr 7 15:30 +-2d 81.0 S 95.1 W
SpaceCom Apr 5 10:34 Apr 7 19:37 +-1d 13.8 S 147.5 E
SpaceCom Apr 5 15:36 Apr 7 14:17 +-1d 30.5 S 41.5 E
SpaceCom Apr 7 00:11 Apr 7 09:27 +-6h 32.5 S 55.9 W
SatEvo Apr 1 17:50 Apr 7 07:01 +-1.5d
SatEvo Apr 2 17:20 Apr 7 13:40 +-1.3d
SatEvo Apr 3 18:25 Apr 7 13:40 +-1.0d
SatEvo Apr 4 16:25 Apr 7 15:52 +-18h
SatEvo Apr 5 18:40 Apr 7 10:23 +-10h 75.8 N 135.5 E
SatEvo Apr 6 16:20 Apr 7 15:10 +-6h 18.4 S 145.7 W
SatEvo Apr 7 06:30 Apr 7 09:10 +-3h 18.9 N 60.2 W
Latest elset:
Cosmos 2106 4.0 2.0 0.0 6.2 d 10 166 x 160 km
1 20966U 90104A 00098.05108359 .15241229 -11564-5 10863-2 0 5372
2 20966 82.4504 96.2046 0004604 251.6119 108.4533 16.41111705524837
SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 2106 4.0 2.0 0.0 6.2 d 10 150 x 146 km
1 20966U 90104A 00098.23372719 .22493578 42211+0 48942-3 0 95374
2 20966 82.4484 95.9850 0003511 250.8486 109.1134 16.46763176524865
Cosmos 2106 4.0 2.0 0.0 6.2 d 10 141 x 137 km
1 20966U 90104A 00098.29443924 .34848162 11535+1 42218-3 0 95379
2 20966 82.4473 95.9115 0002892 250.5932 109.3756 16.50118625524872
Cosmos 2106 4.0 2.0 0.0 6.2 d 10 123 x 121 km
1 20966U 90104A 00098.35498574 .85438888 73836+1 40635-3 0 95376
2 20966 82.4454 95.8378 0001785 250.3368 109.6439 16.56539469524883
Note: The severe geomagnetic storm that began at the time I made my
last prediction remains is still raging and, not surprisingly,
drag rates have increased from their already high values.
The latest elset has this running 18 seconds early against
yesterday's predictions. The new prediction is uncertain but puts
the decay just NE of Antigua & Barbuda in the NE Caribbean on the
southbound approach to an equator crossing N of Manaus, Brazil.
That orbit takes it near Halifax, Nova Scotia, at 09:04 UTC. Earlier,
it makes a northbound crossing of central Australia, passing over
Ayers Rock at 08:25.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Apr 06 2000 - 23:47:16 PDT