Decay watch: 2000 Apr 6

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Apr 06 2000 - 09:53:49 PDT

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    #20966 = 90-104 A = Cosmos 2106
    
    My current prediction is for decay at Apr 7 15:10 UTC +-6h near 18.4 S,
    145.7 W. The latest elset is:
    Cosmos 2106      4.0  2.0  0.0  6.2 d   10       188 x 180 km
    1 20966U 90104A   00097.56198763  .03851930  00000-0  64108-3 0  5300
    2 20966  82.4612  96.7891 0006061 254.2314 105.8942 16.33352898524752
    
    This has this running 12 seconds late against yesterday's predictions.
    The new prediction involves another change in the atmospheric profile -
    the fit over recent days implying that the atmosphere is unusually
    distended. This may be as a result of the recent record high levels of
    solar activity, the provisional Sunspot Number having exceeded 300 for
    the first time during the current solar cycle on Apr 2.
    
    The final predicted orbit..
    Cosmos 2106      4.0  2.0  0.0  6.2 d   10       121 x 119 km
    1 20966U 90104A   00098.59873386  .69513367  50283+1  29128-3 0 95306
    2 20966  82.4534  95.5490 0001625 249.9140 110.0685 16.57523350524926
    ..takes it northwards over the equator to the S of Somalia at 14:22 UTC,
    then over Riyad, Saudi Arabia, at 14:28, E of Baghdad, Iraq, at 14:30
    and onwards across Russia. The southbound leg takes it over SW Alaska at
    14:50 and E of the Big Island of Hawaii at 15:01. I put decay over the
    Pacific after the southbound equator crossing.
    
    More details at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ 
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Apr 06 2000 - 09:58:57 PDT