Decay watch: 2000 April 1

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Apr 01 2000 - 10:47:13 PST

  • Next message: Mir16609@aol.com: "Obs 31 March + 1 April + TiPS"

    I have updated my Decay Watch page at
           http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    with the first decay warnings for two decayers.
    
    
    #20966 = 90-104 A = Cosmos 2106
    
    SpaceCom's first warning for this predicts its decay for Apr 7 17:12
    +-4d. I compute Apr 7 07:01 +-1.5d. This is in sunlight all around its
    orbit though it may move into eclipse in the equatorial morning sky
    before decay. The latest elset is:
    Cosmos 2106      4.0  2.0  0.0  6.2 d   10       242 x 236 km
    1 20966U 90104A   00092.56093486  .01078452  74976-3  97364-3 0  5013
    2 20966  82.4640 102.5949 0003981 191.6258 168.4964 16.12852446523942
    
    
    #24314 = 96- 55 B = Echostar 2 Ariane 42P r
    
    Nothing from SpaceCom about this yet, but my own estimate is for decay
    at about Apr 4 07:00 +-1.5d. In fact, this is going to be an interesting
    decayer. If it decays normally, it might well decay on April 3. However,
    its dimensions and perigee height close to the atmospheric flow
    transition region mean that it could survive as much as two days longer.
    It enters eclipse near 4 deg N  in the evening sky on the approach
    towards perigee. Eclipse exit occurs near 7 deg S at about 04:00 local
    time and at an altitude above 1,000 km and climbing. The latest elset
    reads:
    Echostar 2 Ariane 42P r                          3783 x 122 km
    1 24314U 96055B   00083.54963877  .10144688 -97544-5  10961-2 0  2268
    2 24314   7.3315  23.1781 2196892  80.0395 303.3602 11.41866050 41081
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Apr 01 2000 - 10:48:32 PST