The end is nigh for the Molniya 3-16 r2... --------------------------------------------------------------------- Object: #12519 = 81- 54 E = Molniya 3-16 r2 Decay predictions: Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude UTC UTC deg deg SpaceCom Apr 22 12:05 Apr 29 12:41 +-1d 8.6 S 56.3 E SpaceCom Apr 26 13:27 Apr 30 09:35 +-2d 6.3 S 101.1 E SpaceCom Apr 27 07:48 Apr 30 07:49 +-2d 36.9 S 106.7 E SpaceCom Apr 28 11:01 Apr 30 06:16 +-1d 41.1 S 126.0 E SpaceCom Apr 29 06:25 Apr 30 06:49 +-15h 58.5 N 153.8 W SpaceCom Apr 29 15:24 Apr 30 03:25 +-2h 12.7 S 169.6 W SatEvo Apr 23 20:45 May 1 04:00 +-2d SatEvo Apr 26 18:30 May 1 19:04 +-1.3d 40.4 S 73.4 W SatEvo Apr 27 20:00 May 1 03:29 +-1d 41.6 S 162.2 E SatEvo Apr 28 20:45 May 1 00:27 +-16h 40.6 S 150.6 W SatEvo Apr 29 06:45 Apr 30 15:15 +-10h 41.8 S 12.1 W SatEvo Apr 29 19:35 Apr 30 09:12 +-6h 40.9 S 81.0 E Latest elset: Molniya 3-16 r2 607 x 99 km 1 12519U 81054E 99119.60879630 .33221169 10938-4 39951-3 0 8153 2 12519 61.8708 107.3818 0377554 308.7241 211.3343 15.72071197100338 SatEvo prediction: Molniya 3-16 r2 523 x 98 km 1 12519U 81054E 99119.83346096 .37849327 10264+0 39774-3 0 98158 2 12519 61.8642 106.4970 0317727 308.8289 48.3768 15.87084676100378 Molniya 3-16 r2 438 x 97 km 1 12519U 81054E 99120.02167039 .45678939 19518+0 40191-3 0 98153 2 12519 61.8588 105.7388 0256590 308.9190 48.8209 16.02648344100409 Molniya 3-16 r2 331 x 95 km 1 12519U 81054E 99120.20787554 .63811399 55638+0 42160-3 0 98153 2 12519 61.8528 104.9698 0179591 309.0106 49.4037 16.22431174100434 Molniya 3-16 r2 286 x 94 km 1 12519U 81054E 99120.26939784 .78495356 10584+1 44142-3 0 98154 2 12519 61.8502 104.7104 0146242 309.0417 49.6657 16.31085947100442 Molniya 3-16 r2 226 x 92 km 1 12519U 81054E 99120.33056609 1.15894353 43582+1 49620-3 0 98150 2 12519 61.8457 104.4489 0102581 309.0730 50.0188 16.42526167100452 Note: The latest elset has running 47 seconds early against the prediction in this morning's update. The fit through today's elsets looks quite good, but I still predict decay later than does SpaceCom. I show decay at perigee on an orbit that crosses N America. The track takes it: just N of Anchorage, Alaska, at 08:18 UTC; NE of Regina, Saskatchewan, at 08:25; near St Paul/Minneapolis at 08:27; to the Atlantic at Savannah, Georgia, at 08:31. Of course, if SpaceCom are correct, it should down long before then. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Object: #388 = 62- 39 D = FTV 3502 Scout r Decay predictions: Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude UTC UTC deg deg SpaceCom Apr 27 00:20 May 3 18:06 +-4d 65.6 N 171.1 W SpaceCom Apr 29 06:46 May 3 01:51 +-2d 79.5 N 38.4 E SatEvo Apr 27 19:45 May 4 00:00 +-2d SatEvo Apr 29 19:50 May 3 11:00 +-1d Latest elset: FTV3502 Scout r 1.5 0.5 0.0 6.5 d 238 x 233 km 1 00388U 62039D 99119.73498736 .01760674 00000-0 14320-2 0 7020 2 00388 98.5375 334.1857 0004245 280.9411 79.2091 16.14151544974098 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Object: #8755 = 76- 24 B = Cosmos 808 r Decay predictions: Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude UTC UTC deg deg SatEvo Apr 28 21:00 May 9 19:00 +-3d Latest elset: Cosmos 808 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 244 x 234 km 1 08755U 76024B 99119.20350531 .00633631 22311-3 55905-3 0 2413 2 08755 81.2113 144.2715 0007747 172.4475 187.6957 16.12973121276339 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144 Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/