Decay watch: Apr 29

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 29 Apr 1999 21:17:36 +0100

The end is nigh for the Molniya 3-16 r2...
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Object: #12519 = 81- 54 E = Molniya 3-16 r2

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr 22 12:05     Apr 29 12:41 +-1d         8.6 S    56.3 E
SpaceCom   Apr 26 13:27     Apr 30 09:35 +-2d         6.3 S   101.1 E
SpaceCom   Apr 27 07:48     Apr 30 07:49 +-2d        36.9 S   106.7 E
SpaceCom   Apr 28 11:01     Apr 30 06:16 +-1d        41.1 S   126.0 E
SpaceCom   Apr 29 06:25     Apr 30 06:49 +-15h       58.5 N   153.8 W
SpaceCom   Apr 29 15:24     Apr 30 03:25 +-2h        12.7 S   169.6 W

SatEvo     Apr 23 20:45     May  1 04:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Apr 26 18:30     May  1 19:04 +-1.3d      40.4 S    73.4 W
SatEvo     Apr 27 20:00     May  1 03:29 +-1d        41.6 S   162.2 E
SatEvo     Apr 28 20:45     May  1 00:27 +-16h       40.6 S   150.6 W
SatEvo     Apr 29 06:45     Apr 30 15:15 +-10h       41.8 S    12.1 W
SatEvo     Apr 29 19:35     Apr 30 09:12 +-6h        40.9 S    81.0 E

Latest elset:
Molniya 3-16 r2                                  607 x 99 km
1 12519U 81054E   99119.60879630  .33221169  10938-4  39951-3 0  8153
2 12519  61.8708 107.3818 0377554 308.7241 211.3343 15.72071197100338

SatEvo prediction:
Molniya 3-16 r2                                  523 x 98 km
1 12519U 81054E   99119.83346096  .37849327  10264+0  39774-3 0 98158
2 12519  61.8642 106.4970 0317727 308.8289  48.3768 15.87084676100378
Molniya 3-16 r2                                  438 x 97 km
1 12519U 81054E   99120.02167039  .45678939  19518+0  40191-3 0 98153
2 12519  61.8588 105.7388 0256590 308.9190  48.8209 16.02648344100409
Molniya 3-16 r2                                  331 x 95 km
1 12519U 81054E   99120.20787554  .63811399  55638+0  42160-3 0 98153
2 12519  61.8528 104.9698 0179591 309.0106  49.4037 16.22431174100434
Molniya 3-16 r2                                  286 x 94 km
1 12519U 81054E   99120.26939784  .78495356  10584+1  44142-3 0 98154
2 12519  61.8502 104.7104 0146242 309.0417  49.6657 16.31085947100442
Molniya 3-16 r2                                  226 x 92 km
1 12519U 81054E   99120.33056609 1.15894353  43582+1  49620-3 0 98150
2 12519  61.8457 104.4489 0102581 309.0730  50.0188 16.42526167100452

Note: The latest elset has running 47 seconds early against the 
prediction in this morning's update. The fit through today's elsets 
looks quite good, but I still predict decay later than does SpaceCom. 
I show decay at perigee on an orbit that crosses N America.
The track takes it: just N of Anchorage, Alaska, at 08:18 UTC; NE of 
Regina, Saskatchewan, at 08:25; near St Paul/Minneapolis at 08:27; to
the Atlantic at Savannah, Georgia, at 08:31. Of course, if SpaceCom 
are correct, it should down long before then.
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Object: #388 = 62- 39 D = FTV 3502 Scout r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr 27 00:20     May  3 18:06 +-4d        65.6 N   171.1 W
SpaceCom   Apr 29 06:46     May  3 01:51 +-2d        79.5 N    38.4 E

SatEvo     Apr 27 19:45     May  4 00:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Apr 29 19:50     May  3 11:00 +-1d

Latest elset:
FTV3502 Scout r  1.5  0.5  0.0  6.5 d            238 x 233 km
1 00388U 62039D   99119.73498736  .01760674  00000-0  14320-2 0  7020
2 00388  98.5375 334.1857 0004245 280.9411  79.2091 16.14151544974098
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Object: #8755 = 76- 24 B = Cosmos 808 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SatEvo     Apr 28 21:00     May  9 19:00 +-3d

Latest elset:
Cosmos 808 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            244 x 234 km
1 08755U 76024B   99119.20350531  .00633631  22311-3  55905-3 0  2413
2 08755  81.2113 144.2715 0007747 172.4475 187.6957 16.12973121276339
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/