Decay update: Apr 29 (Molniya r2)

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 29 Apr 1999 08:03:43 +0100

An update on the Molniya r2 which is running ahead of my previous 
prediction...

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Object: #12519 = 81- 54 E = Molniya 3-16 r2

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr 22 12:05     Apr 29 12:41 +-1d         8.6 S    56.3 E
SpaceCom   Apr 26 13:27     Apr 30 09:35 +-2d         6.3 S   101.1 E
SpaceCom   Apr 27 07:48     Apr 30 07:49 +-2d        36.9 S   106.7 E
SpaceCom   Apr 28 11:01     Apr 30 06:16 +-1d        41.1 S   126.0 E

SatEvo     Apr 23 20:45     May  1 04:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Apr 26 18:30     May  1 19:04 +-1.3d      40.4 S    73.4 W
SatEvo     Apr 27 20:00     May  1 03:29 +-1d        41.6 S   162.2 E
SatEvo     Apr 28 20:45     May  1 00:27 +-16h       40.6 S   150.6 W
SatEvo     Apr 29 06:45     Apr 30 15:15 +-10h       41.8 S    12.1 W

Latest elset:
Molniya 3-16 r2                                  742 x 101 km
1 12519U 81054E   99119.22907407  .21791949  88964-5  32794-3 0  8108
2 12519  61.8662 108.8390 0470830 308.8318 238.7312 15.48360598100276

SatEvo prediction:
Molniya 3-16 r2                                  665 x 101 km
1 12519U 81054E   99119.51646669  .24676988  33675-1  33737-3 0 98100
2 12519  61.8626 107.7451 0417351 308.9615  47.3924 15.61665741100313
Molniya 3-16 r2                                  590 x 100 km
1 12519U 81054E   99119.77159661  .27771636  48841-1  33827-3 0 98109
2 12519  61.8578 106.7552 0364407 309.0792  47.7346 15.74999016100356
Molniya 3-16 r2                                  506 x 98 km
1 12519U 81054E   99120.02445231  .32459340  79142-1  34036-3 0 98102
2 12519  61.8527 105.7539 0304639 309.1986  48.1348 15.90132636100397

Note: The latest elset shows this running 122 seconds early against 
my last prediction. The remaining extra lifetime due to the atmospheric 
flow transition effect now stands at 4 hours - so if this does not
occur the decay would be four hours earlier.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/