SatEvo decay list #75

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 19 Apr 1999 20:55:11 +0100

SatEvo decay list #75  (issued 1999 April 19)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses 
is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L,
and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published 
orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. 
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate 
their decay by 1999 June 15, although some larger and/or more 
interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via 
my SatEvo page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all
the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus
elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, 
and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects.


   #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (1999) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 25665   99- 15 B   Progress M-41 Soyuz-U r           April  4.46
 17551   86- 19 JF  Spot 1 Ariane deb                 April  6  Note 2
 25212   87- 68 AP  Meteor 2-16 deb                   April  6  Note 2
 25564   98- 69 D   STS-88 wire carrier               April  7.82
 18154   87- 53 D   DMSP F8 deb                       April 11
 24075   94- 29 DW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April 12
 25218   87- 68 AV  Meteor 2-16 deb                   April 12  Note 2
  7418   74- 66 B   Cosmos 673 r                      April 13.34
 25496   98- 57 B   Hotbird 5 Centaur r               April 14.59
 20047   78- 26 HT  Landsat 3 Delta deb               April 15
 14329   83- 94 B   Satcom 2R Delta r                 April 16.08
 24447   94- 29 SP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April 16  Note 2
 24605   94- 29 ZH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 20
 25689   86- 17 NC  Mir deb                  April 20
 25182   87- 68 H   Meteor 2-16 deb          April 24
 24180   94- 29 JF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 23
 24545   94- 29 WV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 26
 25222   87- 68 AZ  Meteor 2-16 deb          April 26
 24428   94- 29 SG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 27
 25245   87- 68 BN  Meteor 2-16 deb          April 27
 25688   86- 17 NB  Mir deb                  April 27
 23578   94- 85 Y   Rad Rosto deb            April 29? Note 1
 12519   81- 54 E   Molniya 3-16 r2          April 30
 24598   94- 29 ZA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 30
 25206   87- 68 AH  Meteor 2-16 deb          April 30
 24042   94- 29 CP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  1
 25188   87- 68 P   Meteor 2-16 deb            May  1
   388   62- 39 D   FTV 3502 Scout r           May  2
 14492   77- 65 FH  Himawari 1 Delta deb       May  2
 24229   94- 29 LC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  2
 24013   94- 29 BJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  3
 25252   87- 68 BV  Meteor 2-16 deb            May  3
 21521   75- 52 GS  Nimbus 6 Delta 1 deb       May  4
 22508   92- 93 GT  C 2227 Zenit deb           May  4
 22583   93- 17 C   GPS 2-19 r1                May  4
  8755   76- 24 B   Cosmos 808 r               May  5
 11553   79-  4 D   Molniya 3-11 r2            May  6
 18744   87- 20 X   Cosmos 1823 deb            May  6
 25347   98- 32 F   Iridium 70 Delta r         May 13
 19532   88- 89 B   NOAA 11 deb                May 16
 25683   99- 20 B   Landsat 7 Delta 2 r        May 16
 25139   98-  2 F   Skynet 4D Delta 2 deb      May 17
 25690   86- 17 ND  Mir deb                    May 21? Note 3
 24319   96- 49 E   FAST Pegasus deb           May 22
  8538   72- 58 GM  Landsat 1 Delta deb        May 23
 25691   86- 17 NE  Mir deb                    May 25? Note 3
 24162   94- 29 HM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 28
 13469   81- 53 FR  Cosmos 1275 deb            May 30
 24203   94- 29 KE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 30
 25687   86- 17 NA  Mir deb                    May 30
 20352   89- 96 A   Granat                    June  3
 25055   78- 64 J   Seasat 1 deb              June  3
  5432   70- 89 BY  Cosmos 374 deb            June  5
 24088   94- 29 EK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June  5
 23186   94- 43 B   APStar 1 CZ-3 r           June  9
 24248   94- 29 LX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June  9
 24193   94- 29 JU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 12
  4120   69- 84 B   Meteor 1-2 r              June 13
 24488   94- 29 UM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 13
 12280   78- 26 DZ  Landsat 3 Delta deb       June 14
 24490   94- 29 UP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 15
 23558   86- 17 JE  GFZ 1                     June 21
 25670   99- 17 B   DSP 19 Titan 4 r          June 23
 14168   83- 65 C   Galaxy 1 PAM D r          July 11
 12133   81-  2 A   Molniya 3-14              July?
 25500   98- 25 F   C 2350 aux motor        August
 25653   99- 12 E   Glblstar 22 Soyuz r1    August
 15076   84- 63 E   Raduga 15 aux motor  September
 22878   93- 68 B   GPS 2-23 Delta r1    September
 25625   99-  4 E   Glblstar 36 Soyuz r1 September
 25550   98- 69 B   SAC-A                  October
 25680   99- 19 E   Glblstar 19 Soyuz r1   October
 25685   99- 21 A   Sputnik 42             October
 24832   97- 28 E   C 2344 SOZ ullage r   November
 25551   98- 69 C   MightySat             November
  1844   65-106 B   Cosmos 100 r          December
  4222   69- 97 B   AZUR Scout r          December
 22016   92- 39 C   Navstar 26 Del 2 r2   December
 22564   93- 15 B   UFO 1 r1              December
 22702   93- 42 C   GPS 2-21 Delta r2     December
 24291   96- 50 A   Microsat              December
 24972   97- 57 B   IRS-1D r              December
 25014   97- 63 B   STEP M4 Pegasus r     December

Notes

1. No recent elsets.

2. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.

3. Recently catalogued Mir debris; few elsets on which to base
decay prediction.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/