Decay watch: Apr 13

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 13 Apr 1999 21:11:29 +0100

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #7418 = 74- 66 B = Cosmos 673 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr  9 17:46     Apr 13 17:32 +-2d        75.2 S    68.8 W
SpaceCom   Apr 10 16:10     Apr 13 13:53 +-2d        80.1 N   166.7 W
SpaceCom   Apr 11 11:32     Apr 13 10:26 +-1d        38.7 S   175.1 E
SpaceCom   Apr 12 10:15     Apr 13 09:53 +-14h        1.7 S    11.1 E
SpaceCom   Apr 12 20:57     Apr 13 09:16 +-8h        31.8 N   154.5 W
SpaceCom   Apr 13 02:48     Apr 13 09:01 +-5h        29.9 S   161.3 W
SpaceCom   Apr 13 06:07     Apr 13 08:37 +-2h        50.5 S    40.7 E
SpaceCom   Apr 13 08:37     Apr 13 08:37 +-1h        50.5 S    40.7 E
SpaceCom   Apr 13 11:03     Apr 13 08:37 +-1h        50.5 S    40.7 E

SatEvo     Apr  7 16:25     Apr 14 05:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Apr  9 21:50     Apr 13 13:05 +-1d        74.8 S     4.0 W
SatEvo     Apr 11 19:45     Apr 13 08:38 +-10h       68.2 S    51.3 E
SatEvo     Apr 12 19:40     Apr 13 09:04 +-4h         0.0     158.0 W
SatEvo     Apr 13 19:30     Apr 13 08:14 +-45m       28.7 N    29.9 E

Final elset:
Cosmos 673 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            182 x 166 km
1 07418U 74066B   99102.58719349  .04999664 -97543-6  55455-3 0  9630
2 07418  81.1863 180.3344 0011861 256.5520 103.8432 16.37005855358292

Note: The final elset has this running 1.4 second late against 
yesterday's prediction. I put decay southbound over Egypt on a track 
that had taken it over E Europe. My SatEvo elset for the final orbit:
Cosmos 673 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            122 x 114 km
1 07418U 74066B   99103.31780619  .91688800  13761+2  34595-3 0 99661
2 07418  81.1844 179.3207 0006040 264.3670  95.5641 16.58242548358411
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #14329 = 83- 94 B = Satcom 2 R Delta 1 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr  8 20:00     Apr 15 16:32 +-4d        17.9 S     6.4 E
SpaceCom   Apr 11 21:32     Apr 15 20:46 +-2d         3.1 S   107.8 W
SpaceCom   Apr 12 23:35     Apr 15 22:16 +-2d         0.9 N   122.8 W

SatEvo     Apr  9 21:45     Apr 15 14:00 +-1.5d
SatEvo     Apr 11 19:55     Apr 15 15:15 +-1d
SatEvo     Apr 12 19:55     Apr 15 13:47 +-15h       23.9 N   117.7 E
SatEvo     Apr 13 19:45     Apr 15 20:57 +-15h       21.4 N    50.1 W

Latest elset:
Satcm2R Del 1 r  6.4  2.0  0.0  5.0 d            269 x 186 km
1 14329U 83094B   99103.59563574  .03084895 -11736-4  12522-2 0    62
2 14329  25.4511  71.2844 0062436  83.4006 277.3545 16.17096082725442

SatEvo prediction:
Satcm2R Del 1 r  6.4  2.0  0.0  5.0 d            258 x 182 km
1 14329U 83094B   99104.02714066  .03411475  47720-2  11555-2 0 90066
2 14329  25.4507  67.8416 0057491  89.2660 271.3927 16.19783538725515
Satcm2R Del 1 r  6.4  2.0  0.0  5.0 d            244 x 176 km
1 14329U 83094B   99104.51931731  .04345578  82743-2  11235-2 0 90060
2 14329  25.4500  63.8965 0050974  95.9870 264.5942 16.23560241725597
Satcm2R Del 1 r  6.4  2.0  0.0  5.0 d            224 x 168 km
1 14329U 83094B   99105.01017229  .06176810  18864-1  10722-2 0 90068
2 14329  25.4492  59.9375 0042768 102.7320 257.7464 16.28602295725670
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #25496 = 96- 57 B = Hotbird 5 Centaur r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr 11 14:41     Apr 12 05:41 +-10h         7.5 N   177.0 E
SpaceCom   Apr 11 19:23     Apr 14 13:57 +-2d         19.6 S    99.5 W
SpaceCom   Apr 12 10:37     Apr 14 06:14 +-1d          4.0 N   155.7 E
SpaceCom   Apr 13 09:35     Apr 14 03:09 +-11h         0.9 S   167.6 W

SatEvo     Apr  9 22:00     Apr 14 22:00 +-2.5d
SatEvo     Apr 11 20:10     Apr 14 20:10 +-1d
SatEvo     Apr 12 20:00     Apr 14 15:52 +-12h         0.0       0.9 W
SatEvo     Apr 13 20:00     Apr 14 12:15 +-5h          2.2 S    49.4 E

Latest elset:
Hotbird 5 Centaur r                              3209 x 115 km
1 25496U 98057B   99103.73272223  .99999999 -27448-5  87830-2 0  2203
2 25496  24.7347  84.4693 1924285 349.7776 165.2060 12.04290363  5255

SatEvo prediction:
Hotbird 5 Centaur r                              2418 x 108 km
1 25496U 98057B   99104.01691905 1.80300842  45113+0  68986-2 0 92203
2 25496  24.7046  83.1398 1511636 352.0650   5.7888 12.99777371  5292
Hotbird 5 Centaur r                              1748 x 103 km
1 25496U 98057B   99104.24004921 2.43033665  18405+1  60946-2 0 92203
2 25496  24.6841  81.9380 1126075 354.1334   4.6511 13.90867288  5326
Hotbird 5 Centaur r                              1199 x 99 km
1 25496U 98057B   99104.37979884 3.77780741  60886+1  61994-2 0 92202
2 25496  24.6673  81.0820 0783168 355.6069   3.7440 14.73795593  5345
Hotbird 5 Centaur r                              824 x 95 km
1 25496U 98057B   99104.44626909 5.92833028  23594+2  67061-2 0 92200
2 25496  24.6548  80.6292 0532872 356.3865   3.2433 15.35483829  5353

Note: This was 69 seconds late against yesterday's prediction at the 
time of the latest elset. I note there remain a large difference between
the SpaceCom and SatEvo decay predictions. I put decay at perigee near a 
northbound equator crossing off the E coast of Africa.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/