Decay watch: Apr 12

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 12 Apr 1999 21:19:13 +0100

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Object: #7418 = 74- 66 B = Cosmos 673 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr  3 14:52     Apr 11 18:14 +-5d        75.8 S    31.4 E
SpaceCom   Apr  6 22:50     Apr 13 21:52 +-4d        53.9 S   158.1 W
SpaceCom   Apr  9 17:46     Apr 13 17:32 +-2d        75.2 S    68.8 W
SpaceCom   Apr 10 16:10     Apr 13 13:53 +-2d        80.1 N   166.7 W
SpaceCom   Apr 11 11:32     Apr 13 10:26 +-1d        38.7 S   175.1  E
SpaceCom   Apr 12 10:15     Apr 13 09:53 +-14h        1.7 S    11.1  E

SatEvo     Apr  3 21:15     Apr 14 15:00 +-3d
SatEvo     Apr  5 21:30     Apr 14 15:00 +-2.5d
SatEvo     Apr  7 16:25     Apr 14 05:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Apr  9 21:50     Apr 13 13:05 +-1d        74.8 S     4.0 W
SatEvo     Apr 11 19:45     Apr 13 08:38 +-10h       68.2 S    51.3 E
SatEvo     Apr 12 19:40     Apr 13 09:04 +-4h         0.0     158.0 W

Latest elset:
Cosmos 673 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            182 x 166 km
1 07418U 74066B   99102.58719349  .04999664 -97543-6  55455-3 0  9630
2 07418  81.1863 180.3344 0011861 256.5520 103.8432 16.37005855358292

SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 673 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            172 x 158 km
1 07418U 74066B   99102.83138587  .07640484  33957-1  56639-3 0 99630
2 07418  81.1852 179.9945 0010257 255.5731 104.3130 16.40267757358333
Cosmos 673 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            162 x 151 km
1 07418U 74066B   99103.01423975  .10230918  65915-1  38019-3 0 99631
2 07418  81.1841 179.7387 0008778 254.8368 105.0661 16.43484786358368
Cosmos 673 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            140 x 133 km
1 07418U 74066B   99103.25732751  .26611642  77621+0  26954-3 0 99636
2 07418  81.1814 179.3964 0005728 253.8511 106.0858 16.51010907358409
Cosmos 673 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            128 x 122 km
1 07418U 74066B   99103.31786825  .55704861  43785+1  29854-3 0 99639
2 07418  81.1799 179.3103 0004136 253.6035 106.3511 16.55536390358410

Note: The latest elset has this running 1 second late against 
yesterday's prediction. I predict decay near a northbound equator 
crossing near Christmas Island in the mid-Pacific.
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Object: #14329 = 83- 94 B = Satcom 2 R Delta 1 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr  8 20:00     Apr 15 16:32 +-4d        17.9 S     6.4 E
SpaceCom   Apr 11 21:32     Apr 15 20:46 +-2d         3.1 S   107.8 W

SatEvo     Apr  9 21:45     Apr 15 14:00 +-1.5d
SatEvo     Apr 11 19:55     Apr 15 15:15 +-1d
SatEvo     Apr 12 19:55     Apr 15 13:47 +-15h       23.9 N   117.7 E

Latest elset:
Satcm2R Del 1 r  6.4  2.0  0.0  5.0 d            291 x 194 km
1 14329U 83094B   99102.48311357  .02015524 -11583-4  11401-2 0    00
2 14329  25.4401  80.1231 0073534  67.2714 293.5778 16.11555066725260
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Object: #25496 = 96- 57 B = Hotbird 5 Centaur r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr 11 14:41     Apr 12 05:41 +-10h         7.5 N   177.0 E
SpaceCom   Apr 11 19:23     Apr 14 13:57 +-2d         19.6 S    99.5 W
SpaceCom   Apr 12 10:37     Apr 14 06:14 +-1d          4.0 N   155.7 E

SatEvo     Apr  9 22:00     Apr 14 22:00 +-2.5d
SatEvo     Apr 11 20:10     Apr 14 20:10 +-1d
SatEvo     Apr 12 20:00     Apr 14 15:52 +-12h         0.0       0.9 W
Latest elset:
Hotbird 5 Centaur r                              5274 x 110 km
1 25496U 98057B   99102.72477228  .71120014 -61520-5  54510-2 0  2115
2 25496  24.7732  88.1123 2846179 343.6348 156.7978 10.05058730  5146

SatEvo prediction:
Hotbird 5 Centaur r                              4618 x 112 km
1 25496U 98057B   99103.07188932  .86687979  13112+0  62898-2 0 92113
2 25496  24.7582  86.9739 2577084 345.5922   8.2517 10.62003106  5187
Hotbird 5 Centaur r                              3714 x 112 km
1 25496U 98057B   99103.52441821 1.10040106  22842+0  67495-2 0 92113
2 25496  24.7364  85.3006 2172191 348.4701   7.2553 11.50070287  5239
Hotbird 5 Centaur r                              2589 x 109 km
1 25496U 98057B   99104.01954627 1.49248654  28607+0  62776-2 0 92113
2 25496  24.7028  83.1247 1604641 352.2136   5.5647 12.78160144  5297

Note: This was all of 7.3 minutes early against yesterday's prediction
at the epoch of the latest elset.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/