Decay watch: Apr 11

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 11 Apr 1999 21:18:20 +0100

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #7418 = 74- 66 B = Cosmos 673 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr  3 14:52     Apr 11 18:14 +-5d        75.8 S    31.4 E
SpaceCom   Apr  6 22:50     Apr 13 21:52 +-4d        53.9 S   158.1 W
SpaceCom   Apr  9 17:46     Apr 13 17:32 +-2d        75.2 S    68.8 W
SpaceCom   Apr 10 16:10     Apr 13 13:53 +-2d        80.1 N   166.7 W
SpaceCom   Apr 11 11:32     Apr 13 10:26 +-1d        38.7 S   175.1  E

SatEvo     Apr  3 21:15     Apr 14 15:00 +-3d
SatEvo     Apr  5 21:30     Apr 14 15:00 +-2.5d
SatEvo     Apr  7 16:25     Apr 14 05:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Apr  9 21:50     Apr 13 13:05 +-1d        74.8 S     4.0 W
SatEvo     Apr 11 19:45     Apr 13 08:38 +-10h       68.2 S    51.3 E

Latest elset:
Cosmos 673 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            203 x 188 km
1 07418U 74066B   99101.54510724  .02833208 -96106-6  70092-3 0  9582
2 07418  81.1873 181.7802 0011227 256.5413 103.4449 16.29024770358128

SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 673 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            193 x 180 km
1 07418U 74066B   99102.03606645  .03651077  72023-2  67553-3 0 99582
2 07418  81.1862 181.1047 0009916 254.5957 105.2948 16.32152785358209
Cosmos 673 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            161 x 153 km
1 07418U 74066B   99103.01423019  .10272988  64901-1  41326-3 0 99586
2 07418  81.1823 179.7463 0005928 250.6843 109.2515 16.43479623358367
Cosmos 673 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            126 x 122 km
1 07418U 74066B   99103.31784958  .62071488  51557+1  32054-3 0 99580
2 07418  81.1781 179.3178 0002665 249.4510 110.5204 16.55868437358415

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #14329 = 83- 94 B = Satcom 2 R Delta 1 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr  8 20:00     Apr 15 16:32 +-4d        17.9 S     6.4 E

SatEvo     Apr  9 21:45     Apr 15 14:00 +-1.5d
SatEvo     Apr 11 19:55     Apr 15 15:15 +-1d

Latest elset:
Satcm2R Del 1 r  6.4  2.0  0.0  5.0 d            310 x 199 km
1 14329U 83094B   99101.42924325  .01914390 -11461-4  13579-2 0  9952
2 14329  25.4400  88.4582 0083116  52.7581 308.0593 16.07275246725099
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #25496 = 96- 57 B = Hotbird 5 Centaur r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr 11 14:41     Apr 12 05:41 +-10h         7.5 N   177.0 E

SatEvo     Apr  9 22:00     Apr 14 22:00 +-2.5d
SatEvo     Apr 11 20:10     Apr 14 20:10 +-1d

Latest elset:
Hotbird 5 Centaur r                              7087 x 100 km
1 25496U 98057B   99101.60780246  .01886770 -12570-4  12083-3 0  2029
2 25496  24.7723  91.2795 3503067 338.0270   9.8433  8.71869842  5042

SatEvo prediction:
Hotbird 5 Centaur r                              6476 x 112 km
1 25496U 98057B   99102.05816380  .57001027  55039-1  57263-2 0 92023
2 25496  24.7622  90.1390 3289402 339.9882   9.6396  9.12713949  5084
Hotbird 5 Centaur r                              5603 x 112 km
1 25496U 98057B   99102.58735851  .67299034  77180-1  59371-2 0 92025
2 25496  24.7478  88.6525 2972199 342.5444   9.0938  9.78187396  5135
Hotbird 5 Centaur r                              4740 x 112 km
1 25496U 98057B   99103.08052832  .81162340  11497+0  62237-2 0 92029
2 25496  24.7314  87.0883 2627877 345.2349   8.3554 10.50948724  5181

Note: The drag term in the latest elset is much too low. The SatEvo
prediction is from the usual fit to recent elsets, with the perigee
height adjusted.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/