Decay watch: Apr 3

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 3 Apr 1999 22:29:10 +0100

SpaceCom has yet to update its erroneous decay prediction for 
Soyoz rocket, but has produced the first decay warning for 
the Cosmos 673 rocket.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #25665 = 99- 15 B = Progress M-41 Soyuz-U r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr  2 18:19     Apr  4 04:59 +-21h       39.0 N   122.8 W
SpaceCom   Apr  2 22:18     Apr  3 16:37 +-11h       25.3 S    95.7 W

SatEvo     Apr  2 19:45     Apr  5 02:25 +-1d
SatEvo     Apr  2 23:15     Apr  4 09:58 +-12h       49.1 S    45.4 W      
SatEvo     Apr  3 20:45     Apr  4 12:05 +-6h        51.7 N    72.7 E      

Latest elset:
Prog M-41 Soyuz r                                192 x 167 km
1 25665U 99015B   99093.75862896  .05738858  12314-4  69666-3 0   153
2 25665  51.6283   5.3325 0019230  75.4919 284.8778 16.34831279   210

SatEvo predictions:
Prog M-41 Soyuz r                                181 x 160 km
1 25665U 99015B   99094.00284717  .08320266  41121-1  68810-3 0 90159
2 25665  51.6273   3.9586 0016518  76.5174 283.6666 16.38327845   253
Prog M-41 Soyuz r                                165 x 148 km
1 25665U 99015B   99094.24647036  .13684124  13766+0  45968-3 0 90155
2 25665  51.6259   2.5799 0012985  77.5466 282.5986 16.43409926   291
Prog M-41 Soyuz r                                142 x 131 km
1 25665U 99015B   99094.42852046  .37462005  16407+1  33362-3 0 90153
2 25665  51.6236   1.5409 0008289  78.3224 281.7706 16.51115302   322
Prog M-41 Soyuz r                                118 x 112 km
1 25665U 99015B   99094.48891790 1.41420034  50000+2  41572-3 0 90150
2 25665  51.6214   1.1924 0004323  78.5826 281.4659 16.59227629   330

Note: The latest elset has this running only 0.3 second late on the 
prediction I posted in yesterday's update. I place decay near northern 
apex on an orbit that begins with a northbound equator crossing near
7 deg W and continues across N Africa and Libya to Turkey and S 
Russia.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #7418 = 74- 66 B = Cosmos 673 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr  3 14:52     Apr 11 18:14 +-5d        75.8 S    31.4 E

SatEvo     Apr  3 21:15     Apr 14 15:00 +-3d

Latest elset:
Cosmos 673 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            255 x 240 km
1 07418U 74066B   99093.50043175  .00570560  16700-3  62035-3 0  9166
2 07418  81.1971 192.6116 0010888 255.5335 104.4745 16.09741049356828

Note: This is poorly placed for observation. It enters eclipse while
northbound over Antarctica and leaves eclipse while northbound within
the Arctic Circle.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/