Re: Decay watch: 4 rockets

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 22 Apr 1998 22:00:34 +0100

Two down, two to go.

The final elset for the DBS2 Centaur rocket...
DBS2 Centaur r   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            479 x 124 km
1 23193U 94047B   98111.87261305  .29936017 -95058-5  93248-3 0  2963
2 23193  26.8272 248.6949 0265556 100.1886 262.8749 15.90356953 70238
...shows it running 30 seconds early against the SatEvo "9293"
evolution I posted yesterday. I calculate that decay may been at about 
April 22.20 (04:48 UTC) near 25 deg N, 75 deg E, thought it could have 
fallen one orbit earlier or later.


The final elset for the other decaying Centaur was...
GOES 10 Centaur r                                1107 x 129 km
1 24787U 97019B   98111.76365856  .99999999 -90017-5  11280-1 0  3510
2 24787  27.4243 305.2530 0698674 109.7575 262.7744 14.83665625  9427
...which is 115 seconds late on yesterday's prediction. I put decay at 
April 21.98 (23:25 UTC) near 25 deg N, 140 deg W.


The decaying Iridium 43 Delta 2 rocket was 6 seconds late against 
yesterday's SatEvo "9241" according at the epoch of this latest elset:
Iridm 43 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            259 x 190 km
1 25044U 97069F   98112.54575604  .01942025 -13880-5  90312-3 0  2487
2 25044  83.5299 343.6493 0052199  86.8465 273.8785 16.18193063 25700
My current prediction is for decay at April 25.6 +-0.6d.
Predicted elsets:
Iridm 43 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            250 x 187 km
1 25044U 97069F   98113.04012925  .02265084  22731-2  92229-3 0 92488
2 25044  83.5292 343.1570 0047747  84.8010 275.7437 16.20325234 25784
Iridm 43 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            240 x 184 km
1 25044U 97069F   98113.53383936  .02675283  33708-2  92810-3 0 92483
2 25044  83.5283 342.6637 0042842  82.7516 277.7352 16.22750952 25869
Iridm 43 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            229 x 180 km
1 25044U 97069F   98114.02674098  .03328794  58165-2  93792-3 0 92487
2 25044  83.5272 342.1693 0037307  80.6979 279.7238 16.25680857 25947


The Long March Iridium 51 rocket was 11 seconds early at this latest
elset as compared with yesterday's "9089" evolution:
Ir 51 CZ-2C r   12.0  3.5  0.0  4.3 d            282 x 148 km
1 25264U 98018C   98112.41935997  .03974109 -13799-5  35812-3 0   950
2 25264  86.3669 359.2228 0101600  62.0045 299.1475 16.21555508  4363
I now show decay at April 24.1 +-0.4d.
Prediction:
Ir 51 CZ-2C r   12.0  3.5  0.0  4.3 d            253 x 146 km
1 25264U 98018C   98113.03538288  .05299628  72589-2  35813-3 0 90957
2 25264  86.3648 358.8752 0081167  59.3175 301.4799 16.27383426  4466
Ir 51 CZ-2C r   12.0  3.5  0.0  4.3 d            201 x 140 km
1 25264U 98018C   98113.77111278  .11811951  89002-1  38392-3 0 90952
2 25264  86.3609 358.4551 0046130  56.0729 304.3646 16.38280567  4586
Ir 51 CZ-2C r   12.0  3.5  0.0  4.3 d            164 x 131 km
1 25264U 98018C   98114.01487714  .29331338  69110+0  40544-3 0 90954
2 25264  86.3581 358.3138 0025494  54.9829 305.2560 16.46876887  4628
Ir 51 CZ-2C r   12.0  3.5  0.0  4.3 d            146 x 124 km
1 25264U 98018C   98114.07555194  .55787893  29184+1  45087-3 0 90953
2 25264  86.3566 358.2783 0016785  54.7088 305.4480 16.51646395  4633

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
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