SatEvo decay list #52

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 19 Apr 1998 19:41:56 +0100

SatEvo decay list #52  (issued 1998 April 19)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses 
is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L,
and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

The "Actual" decay dates are my estimates based on the published 
orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
Objects are included here if I anticipate their decay by May 31, 
although several larger and/or more interesting decayers are
included beyond that date. With solar activity remaining at very 
high levels, most decay dates have been brought forward since my 
previous list.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via 
my SatEvo page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
In addition you can find current elsets for the still-to-decay 
objects below, together with other objects of interest, including 
Mir, the Iridium satellites and all recently launched/catalogued 
objects. These files are mirrored for anonymous FTP access at
        ftp://ftp.satellite.eu.org/pub/sat/mirrors/pickup/
and are updated several times daily.

   #    Designation    Name               ----- Decay (1998) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 24041   94- 29 CN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April  6
 24144   94- 29 GT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April  6
 25140   86- 17 MK  Mir deb                           April  7.5
 24188   94- 29 JP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April  8.3
 25238   98- 13 B   Hot Bird 4 Ariane r               April  8.31
 24364   94- 29 PR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April  8.7
 24997   94- 29 ADE STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April 11
 25150   92- 72 E   Galaxy 7 Ariane deb               April 11?   Note 1
 21892   92-  9 C   Navstar 24 r2 (PAM-D)             April 12.42
 24574   94- 29 YA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April 12
 24615   94- 29 ZT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April 13
 25142   86- 17 ML  Mir deb                           April 13
 25295   97- 80 C   Cosmos 2348 deb                   April 14.3
 25296   97- 80 D   Cosmos 2348 deb                   April 14.4
 24035   94- 29 CG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April 15
 24970   97- 56 F   Iridium 19 Delta r                April 17.95
 20132   88- 98 C   TDF 1 Ariane 2 deb       April 22
 24787   97- 19 B   GOES 10 Centaur r        April 22.2
 23193   94- 47 B   DBS 2 Atlas Centaur r    April 22.9
 25144   87- 79 M   Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb    April 23
 25264   98- 18 C   Iridium 51 CZ-2C r       April 24.0
 25044   97- 69 F   Iridium 43 Delta r       April 24.7
 22943   83- 75 AG  Cosmos 1484 deb          April 26
 23063   89- 89 BJ  COBE deb                 April 26?   Note 1
 24083   94- 29 EE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 26
 25196   87- 68 X   Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb    April 27?
 25283   86- 17 MM  Mir deb                  April 27
 24423   94- 29 SB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 28
 25177   87- 68 C   Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb    April 29?   Note 1
 25250   87- 68 BT  Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb    April 30
 22852   89- 89 AP  COBE deb                   May  1
 23910   86- 17 KY  Mir deb                    May  2
 24554   94- 29 XE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  2
 25195   87- 68 W   Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb      May  2
 24408   94- 29 RM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  4
 21057   91-  3 C   Italsat 1 Ariane r         May  5
 24633   94- 29 AAM STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  6
 24098   94- 29 EV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  7
 24384   94- 29 QM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  7
 24354   94- 29 PF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  8
 19380   88- 69 D   Molniya 1-73 r2            May 10?   Note 2
 21895   92- 10 C   Superbird B1 Ariane r      May 10
 23069   89- 89 BQ  COBE deb                   May 10
 24419   86- 17 LV  Mir deb                    May 11
 23085   89- 89 CG  COBE deb                   May 12
 15344   71-120 F   Meteor 1-10 SL-3 deb       May 14
 24747   97- 10 D   Zeya deb                   May 15
 24991   94- 29 ACY STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 15
 24958   97- 58 C   Sputnik-40                 May 16
 25277   98- 19 F   Iridium 55 Delta r         May 16
 25293   86- 17 MN  Mir deb                    May 16
 14034   83- 38 A   Cosmos 1456                May 17
 24214   94- 29 KM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 18
 24350   94- 29 PB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 18
 24552   94- 29 XC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 19
 24746   97- 10 C   Zeya deb                   May 22
 24169   94- 29 GA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 23
 25265   98- 18 D   Iridium 51 CS02 S/D        May 23
 23262   90- 81 CT  FY-1B CZ-4 deb             May 26
 23920   86- 17 LG  Mir deb                    May 29
 24649   96- 62 B   Mars GS Delta 2 r         June 22
 19730   88-115 A   Molniya 1-74              July
 24294   96- 50 D   Interbol 2 Molniya-M r    July
 25109   97- 82 F   Iridium 45 Delta r        July
 12519   81- 54 E   Molniya 3-16 r2         August
 25174   98- 10 F   Iridium 50 Delta r      August
 25100   97- 58 D   Inspektor            September

Notes

1. No recent elsets.

2. #19380 (88- 69 D = Molniya 1-73 r2). My previous list had this 
   decaying about March 25. Elsets show it still in orbit on April 15
   (31620 x 83 km) but it may have been lost again. The decay date 
   above is very uncertain.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:      alan@wingar.demon.co.uk       +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/