SatEvo decay list #52 (issued 1998 April 19) This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe. Information about SeeSat-L is available at http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html The "Actual" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included here if I anticipate their decay by May 31, although several larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. With solar activity remaining at very high levels, most decay dates have been brought forward since my previous list. This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ In addition you can find current elsets for the still-to-decay objects below, together with other objects of interest, including Mir, the Iridium satellites and all recently launched/catalogued objects. These files are mirrored for anonymous FTP access at ftp://ftp.satellite.eu.org/pub/sat/mirrors/pickup/ and are updated several times daily. # Designation Name ----- Decay (1998) ----- Predicted Actual? 24041 94- 29 CN STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 6 24144 94- 29 GT STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 6 25140 86- 17 MK Mir deb April 7.5 24188 94- 29 JP STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 8.3 25238 98- 13 B Hot Bird 4 Ariane r April 8.31 24364 94- 29 PR STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 8.7 24997 94- 29 ADE STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 11 25150 92- 72 E Galaxy 7 Ariane deb April 11? Note 1 21892 92- 9 C Navstar 24 r2 (PAM-D) April 12.42 24574 94- 29 YA STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 12 24615 94- 29 ZT STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 13 25142 86- 17 ML Mir deb April 13 25295 97- 80 C Cosmos 2348 deb April 14.3 25296 97- 80 D Cosmos 2348 deb April 14.4 24035 94- 29 CG STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 15 24970 97- 56 F Iridium 19 Delta r April 17.95 20132 88- 98 C TDF 1 Ariane 2 deb April 22 24787 97- 19 B GOES 10 Centaur r April 22.2 23193 94- 47 B DBS 2 Atlas Centaur r April 22.9 25144 87- 79 M Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb April 23 25264 98- 18 C Iridium 51 CZ-2C r April 24.0 25044 97- 69 F Iridium 43 Delta r April 24.7 22943 83- 75 AG Cosmos 1484 deb April 26 23063 89- 89 BJ COBE deb April 26? Note 1 24083 94- 29 EE STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 26 25196 87- 68 X Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb April 27? 25283 86- 17 MM Mir deb April 27 24423 94- 29 SB STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 28 25177 87- 68 C Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb April 29? Note 1 25250 87- 68 BT Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb April 30 22852 89- 89 AP COBE deb May 1 23910 86- 17 KY Mir deb May 2 24554 94- 29 XE STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 2 25195 87- 68 W Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb May 2 24408 94- 29 RM STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 4 21057 91- 3 C Italsat 1 Ariane r May 5 24633 94- 29 AAM STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 6 24098 94- 29 EV STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 7 24384 94- 29 QM STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 7 24354 94- 29 PF STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 8 19380 88- 69 D Molniya 1-73 r2 May 10? Note 2 21895 92- 10 C Superbird B1 Ariane r May 10 23069 89- 89 BQ COBE deb May 10 24419 86- 17 LV Mir deb May 11 23085 89- 89 CG COBE deb May 12 15344 71-120 F Meteor 1-10 SL-3 deb May 14 24747 97- 10 D Zeya deb May 15 24991 94- 29 ACY STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 15 24958 97- 58 C Sputnik-40 May 16 25277 98- 19 F Iridium 55 Delta r May 16 25293 86- 17 MN Mir deb May 16 14034 83- 38 A Cosmos 1456 May 17 24214 94- 29 KM STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 18 24350 94- 29 PB STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 18 24552 94- 29 XC STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 19 24746 97- 10 C Zeya deb May 22 24169 94- 29 GA STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 23 25265 98- 18 D Iridium 51 CS02 S/D May 23 23262 90- 81 CT FY-1B CZ-4 deb May 26 23920 86- 17 LG Mir deb May 29 24649 96- 62 B Mars GS Delta 2 r June 22 19730 88-115 A Molniya 1-74 July 24294 96- 50 D Interbol 2 Molniya-M r July 25109 97- 82 F Iridium 45 Delta r July 12519 81- 54 E Molniya 3-16 r2 August 25174 98- 10 F Iridium 50 Delta r August 25100 97- 58 D Inspektor September Notes 1. No recent elsets. 2. #19380 (88- 69 D = Molniya 1-73 r2). My previous list had this decaying about March 25. Elsets show it still in orbit on April 15 (31620 x 83 km) but it may have been lost again. The decay date above is very uncertain. Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144 Scotland | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/