Decay of #24666 = 96- 67 B (Centaur r)

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 3 Apr 1997 21:16:36 +0100

The Centaur rocket responsible for the Hot Bird 2 satellite launch last
November 21 is close to decay.

The latest OIG elset is:
Centaur r                                        8624 x 101 km
1 24666U 96067B   97093.62983282  .19198903 -13093-4  15404-2 0  1821
2 24666  23.7311 131.0954 3967557 292.3423  30.8179  7.79952963  3517
- however, the ndot2 drag value (0.19198903) is probably too low. A
SatEvo evolution using elsets since 97092.24 suggests a more realistic
ndot2 for the above would be closer to 0.442. The evolution leads to
decay at about April 7.3. Note, however, that (following a solar flare
and coronal mass ejection) a geomagnetic storm may occur in the next day
or two and this could increase drag rates and bring the decay forward,
as well as cause many other satellites to run ahead of predictions.

Predicted elsets:
Centaur r                                        8031 x 105 km
1 24666U 96067B   97094.00711754  .48085615  37713-1  42508-2 0 91650
2 24666  23.6430 130.5711 3793626 293.7993  31.2795  8.13174306  3542
Centaur r                                        7040 x 105 km
1 24666U 96067B   97094.60044260  .56095776  53895-1  43495-2 0 91650
2 24666  23.6087 129.1767 3484373 296.2320  32.2207  8.74703827  3590
Centaur r                                        6269 x 105 km
1 24666U 96067B   97095.04473847  .64537643  74308-1  44865-2 0 91653
2 24666  23.5828 128.0127 3221846 298.2637  32.9837  9.28098070  3635

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
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