Polar r : the final orbits

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 30 Apr 1996 21:29:32 +0100

OIG has provided four new elsets for the decaying Polar r 
(#23803 = 96- 13 B), with the latest:

Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96121.53276279  .04519129 -12616-5  41623-3 0  1562
2 23803  85.8911 348.0212 0078749  28.8335 331.7247 16.26366786 10182

This is 11.6s early with respect to the predicted SatEvo orbit 
evolution I posted yesterday. It is possible to satisfy all four 
latest elements to within 0.4s by a minor change to my initial
n (revs/day). Plugging the evolved n and ndot/2 into the above,
elements and continuing the evolution, I predict the following 
elements through to decay at about May 1.54.

Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96121.90145739  .06541904  22194-1  50072-3 0 91561
2 23803  85.8897 347.7846 0062757  27.2253 333.1023 16.30572117 10245
Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96121.96281267  .06999507  28953-1  51303-3 0 91567
2 23803  85.8893 347.7451 0059682  26.9567 333.3520 16.31401946 10257
Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96122.02413554  .07580990  35504-1  52817-3 0 91565
2 23803  85.8890 347.7056 0056441  26.6880 333.6007 16.32294854 10263
Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96122.08542337  .08305038  44658-1  54466-3 0 91564
2 23803  85.8887 347.6660 0053004  26.4190 333.8492 16.33266752 10271
Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96122.14667283  .09233798  58037-1  56282-3 0 91567
2 23803  85.8883 347.6263 0049331  26.1498 334.0972 16.34338450 10285
Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96122.20787967  .10472617  78772-1  58319-3 0 91564
2 23803  85.8879 347.5867 0045365  25.8803 334.3445 16.35540637 10290
Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96122.26903818  .12216186  11360+0  60667-3 0 91561
2 23803  85.8874 347.5470 0041020  25.6106 334.5907 16.36921530 10306
Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96122.33014029  .14836037  17588+0  63382-3 0 91566
2 23803  85.8869 347.5072 0036162  25.3405 334.8353 16.38562459 10310
Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96122.39117373  .19253090  30921+0  66763-3 0 91567
2 23803  85.8862 347.4674 0030547  25.0701 335.0771 16.40617241 10328
Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96122.45211736  .28498274  73897+0  71947-3 0 91566
2 23803  85.8854 347.4275 0023647  24.7991 335.3138 16.43443430 10337
Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96122.51292226  .66456680  79241+1  89325-3 0 91562
2 23803  85.8832 347.3874 0013640  24.5274 335.5393 16.48509417 10340

Any last sightings?

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224