Impending decays

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 23 Apr 1996 14:25:43 +0100 (CET)

New OIG elements (after a four day hiatus) allow me to update my
SatEvo analysis of decaying objects.

I calculate that #15489 = 85-  7 F (SL-12 r aux motor) decayed at about
April 20.4.
                     -------------------------------

Object #23509 = 95-  8 E (Cosmos 2306 deb) is on schedule for decay
at about April 24.5.
The latest element I have is:
95-  8 E  
1 23509U 95008E   96113.35055262  .02371162  52686-2  35306-2 0  4185
2 23509  65.7895  59.7233 0003115 201.5800 158.5263 16.05866492 64474

Some SatEvo predicted elements are:
95-  8 E  
1 23509U 95008E   96114.03476085  .03636972  72395-2  38108-2 0 94186
2 23509  65.7881  57.2840 0002569 201.1069 158.8825 16.10050969 64580
95-  8 E  
1 23509U 95008E   96114.53107714  .05222300  15867-1  40923-2 0 94187
2 23509  65.7866  55.5036 0002087 200.7618 159.2282 16.14346604 64660
95-  8 E  
1 23509U 95008E   96115.02574327  .09694023  55733-1  45492-2 0 94181
2 23509  65.7843  53.7152 0001457 200.4154 159.5788 16.21262118 64744
95-  8 E  
1 23509U 95008E   96115.45589661  .72044548  47594+1  60718-2 0 94189
2 23509  65.7787  52.1370 0000426 200.1102 159.8887 16.39235910 64811

                     -------------------------------

It is now 10 days since I had elements for object #23073 = 88- 89 BU 
(COBE deb) which was/is predicted to decay at about April 25 according 
to my SatEvo decay list #3.

                     -------------------------------

Object #23803 = 96- 13 B (Polar r) is now predicted to decay about
April 30.0.
The latest OIG element is:
Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96113.22876142  .01584875 -14371-5  71470-3 0  1238
2 23803  85.9034 353.1474 0222040  60.6706 301.6553 15.85804745  8850

SatEvo predicted elements:
Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96114.04834301  .01800033  59863-3  78873-3 0 91232
2 23803  85.9023 352.6531 0210347  57.2998 304.7114 15.88649859  8985
Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96115.05498068  .02010724  67644-3  84426-3 0 91238
2 23803  85.9009 352.0429 0194600  53.1400 308.6289 15.92484405  9149
Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96116.05906561  .02241393  86944-3  89353-3 0 91237
2 23803  85.8993 351.4305 0177122  48.9667 312.5501 15.96744270  9305

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | Home lat. 55d53m48.7s N | Royal Observatory, Blackford
 Edinburgh   |      long. 3d11m51.2s W |      Hill, Edinburgh EH9 3HJ
 Scotland    | alan@wingar.demon.co.uk |           A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk
             |   +44 (0)131 477 9144   |          +44 (0)131 668 8224